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Ball State vs Bowling Green prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
BALL 51% win49% BGSU
26.4Projected
vs
26.1ProjectedNeutral site
Ball State Cardinals
Record 3–5 · #131 in ratings
Neutral site
Bowling Green Falcons
Record 2–6 · #132 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 5 vs 4
- Projected
- Pick'em
- Differential
- 0.2 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Pick'em
- Projected total
- 52.5
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 44.1%
- Went to overtime
- 3.9%
- Ball State wins by 21+
- 8.8%
- Bowling Green wins by 21+
- 8.0%
- Median score
- 26–26
- Model expectation
- 26.2–25.9
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Ball State wins, bars on the left are Bowling Green wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Bowling Green 27, Ball State 2466 games
- Ball State 27, Bowling Green 2062 games
- Bowling Green 27, Ball State 2061 games
- Ball State 24, Bowling Green 2058 games
- Bowling Green 27, Ball State 1757 games
- Ball State 31, Bowling Green 2756 games
Where the edges are
Ball State offense vs Bowling Green defenseOffense -3.6Defense -4.0Even: neither side has a real edge.
Bowling Green offense vs Ball State defenseOffense -7.9Defense -8.0Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | Ball State | Bowling Green | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.12 | 0.01 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.24 | 0.16 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 39.6% | 41.3% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 42.3% | 45.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 22.0 | 18.8 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 35.3 | 29.8 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.