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Ball State vs Central Michigan prediction
Kickoff Sat 11:00 AM CT, at Ball State
BALL 50% win50% CMU
24Projected31If BALL upsets
vs
25Projected19If BALL upsetsHome
Ball State Cardinals
Record 3–5 · #131 in ratings
Away
Central Michigan Chippewas
Record 3–5 · #117 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (53)
Starts at 53, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | BALL | CMU | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 71 | 60 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Toss-up50%Ball State wins at home
At a neutral site41% ▼
Ball State: no wins over higher-rated teams in 7 FBS games
Central Michigan: no losses to lower-rated teams in 7 FBS games
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Ball State won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- CMU 24, BALL 2074 games
- CMU 27, BALL 2062 games
- BALL 24, CMU 2061 games
- CMU 27, BALL 2458 games
- BALL 27, CMU 2057 games
- Power index
- 5 vs 15
- Projected
- Pick'em
- Differential
- 0.1 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Ball State, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 11:00 AM CT, at Ball State.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Pick'em
- Projected total
- 49.7
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 44.1%
- Went to overtime
- 4.1%
- Ball State wins by 21+
- 8.5%
- Central Michigan wins by 21+
- 8.5%
- Median score
- 24–24
- Model expectation
- 24.5–24.7
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Ball State wins, bars on the left are Central Michigan wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Ball State offense vs Central Michigan defenseOffense -3.6Defense -0.8Edge Central Michigan: its defense is 2.8 points better than Ball State's offense.
Central Michigan offense vs Ball State defenseOffense -7.5Defense -8.0Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | Ball State | Central Michigan | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.11 | 0.05 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.24 | 0.19 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 39.6% | 39.4% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 42.3% | 46.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 22.0 | 17.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 35.3 | 25.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
