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Ball State vs Kent State prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
BALL 49% win51% KENT
23.5Projected
vs
23.8ProjectedNeutral site
Ball State Cardinals
Record 3–5 · #131 in ratings
Neutral site
Kent State Golden Flashes
Record 3–5 · #128 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 5 vs 7
- Projected
- Pick'em
- Differential
- 0.4 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Pick'em
- Projected total
- 47.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 45.8%
- Went to overtime
- 4.8%
- Ball State wins by 21+
- 7.4%
- Kent State wins by 21+
- 8.1%
- Median score
- 23–23
- Model expectation
- 23.2–23.6
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Ball State wins, bars on the left are Kent State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Ball State 24, Kent State 2081 games
- Kent State 24, Ball State 2081 games
- Ball State 24, Kent State 1767 games
- Kent State 27, Ball State 2464 games
- Kent State 27, Ball State 1763 games
- Kent State 24, Ball State 1760 games
Where the edges are
Ball State offense vs Kent State defenseOffense -3.6Defense -1.0Edge Kent State: its defense is 2.6 points better than Ball State's offense.
Kent State offense vs Ball State defenseOffense -10.2Defense -8.0Edge Ball State: its defense is 2.2 points better than Kent State's offense.
| Stat | Ball State | Kent State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.12 | -0.01 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.24 | 0.11 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 39.6% | 35.3% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 42.3% | 45.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 22.0 | 14.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 35.3 | 30.5 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.