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Ball State vs Massachusetts prediction
Kickoff Tue 11:00 PM CT, at Massachusetts
BALL 26% win74% MASS
22Projected31If BALL upsets
vs
32Projected22If BALL upsetsAway
Ball State Cardinals
Record 3–5 · #131 in ratings
Home
Massachusetts Minutemen
Record 4–4 · #101 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (49)
Starts at 49, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | BALL | MASS | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 71 | 68 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Live underdog26%Ball State wins on the road
If Ball State plays at home42% ▲
Ball State: no wins over higher-rated teams in 7 FBS games
Massachusetts: 2 losses to lower-rated teams (Buffalo 18–25, Eastern Michigan 14–38)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Ball State won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- MASS 27, BALL 2066 games
- MASS 34, BALL 2460 games
- MASS 20, BALL 1757 games
- MASS 34, BALL 1756 games
- MASS 27, BALL 2453 games
- Power index
- 5 vs 27
- Projected
- MASS favored
- Differential
- 9.3 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Massachusetts, luck set to normal. The real game is Tue 11:00 PM CT, at Massachusetts.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Massachusetts by 9.3
- Projected total
- 53.8
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 36.3%
- Went to overtime
- 3.0%
- Ball State wins by 21+
- 2.5%
- Massachusetts wins by 21+
- 22.2%
- Median score
- 21–31
- Model expectation
- 22–31.1
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Ball State wins, bars on the left are Massachusetts wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Ball State offense vs Massachusetts defenseOffense -3.6Defense -1.4Edge Massachusetts: its defense is 2.2 points better than Ball State's offense.
Massachusetts offense vs Ball State defenseOffense -4.2Defense -8.0Edge Massachusetts: its offense is 3.8 points better than Ball State's defense.
| Stat | Ball State | Massachusetts | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.11 | 0.13 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.24 | 0.01 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 39.6% | 41.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 42.3% | 39.1% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 22.0 | 26.5 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 35.3 | 21.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
