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Ball State vs Northwestern prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
BALL 7% win93% NU
18Projected
vs
39ProjectedNeutral site
Ball State Cardinals
Record 3–5 · #131 in ratings
Neutral site
Northwestern Wildcats
Record 6–1 · #17 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 5 vs 88
- Projected
- NU favored
- Differential
- 21.4 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Northwestern by 21.4
- Projected total
- 57.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 15.8%
- Went to overtime
- 1.0%
- Ball State wins by 21+
- 0.3%
- Northwestern wins by 21+
- 52.7%
- Median score
- 17–39
- Model expectation
- 17.8–39.2
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Ball State wins, bars on the left are Northwestern wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Northwestern 44, Ball State 1765 games
- Northwestern 34, Ball State 1761 games
- Northwestern 37, Ball State 1058 games
- Northwestern 41, Ball State 1057 games
- Northwestern 41, Ball State 1757 games
- Northwestern 37, Ball State 1755 games
Where the edges are
Ball State offense vs Northwestern defenseOffense -3.6Defense +4.4Edge Northwestern: its defense is 8.0 points better than Ball State's offense.
Northwestern offense vs Ball State defenseOffense +5.4Defense -8.0Edge Northwestern: its offense is 13.4 points better than Ball State's defense.
| Stat | Ball State | Northwestern | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.12 | 0.35 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.24 | 0.03 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 39.6% | 51.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 42.3% | 42.2% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 22.0 | 34.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 35.3 | 16.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.