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Ball State vs Ohio State prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
BALL 2% win98% OSU
14Projected
vs
41ProjectedNeutral site
Ball State Cardinals
Record 3–5 · #131 in ratings
Neutral site
Ohio State Buckeyes
Record 6–1 · #5 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 5 vs 97
- Projected
- OSU favored
- Differential
- 27.6 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Ohio State by 27.6
- Projected total
- 54.7
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 7.2%
- Went to overtime
- 0.4%
- Ball State wins by 21+
- 0.1%
- Ohio State wins by 21+
- 69.8%
- Median score
- 13–41
- Model expectation
- 13.5–41.1
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Ball State wins, bars on the left are Ohio State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Ohio State 37, Ball State 779 games
- Ohio State 44, Ball State 776 games
- Ohio State 40, Ball State 774 games
- Ohio State 37, Ball State 1074 games
- Ohio State 41, Ball State 1071 games
- Ohio State 44, Ball State 1068 games
Where the edges are
Ball State offense vs Ohio State defenseOffense -3.6Defense +8.7Edge Ohio State: its defense is 12.3 points better than Ball State's offense.
Ohio State offense vs Ball State defenseOffense +7.3Defense -8.0Edge Ohio State: its offense is 15.3 points better than Ball State's defense.
| Stat | Ball State | Ohio State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.12 | 0.27 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.24 | -0.05 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 39.6% | 50.5% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 42.3% | 35.2% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 22.0 | 39.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 35.3 | 13.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.