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Ball State vs Sacramento State prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
BALL 71% win29% SAC
30Projected
vs
22ProjectedNeutral site
Ball State Cardinals
Record 3–5 · #131 in ratings
Neutral site
Sacramento State Hornets
Record 1–7 · #137 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 5 vs 1
- Projected
- BALL favored
- Differential
- 8.2 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Ball State by 8.2
- Projected total
- 52.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 39.4%
- Went to overtime
- 3.5%
- Ball State wins by 21+
- 19.9%
- Sacramento State wins by 21+
- 2.4%
- Median score
- 30–21
- Model expectation
- 30–21.8
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Ball State wins, bars on the left are Sacramento State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Ball State 27, Sacramento State 1773 games
- Ball State 24, Sacramento State 1758 games
- Ball State 27, Sacramento State 2058 games
- Ball State 34, Sacramento State 2454 games
- Ball State 30, Sacramento State 2753 games
- Ball State 27, Sacramento State 2353 games
Where the edges are
Ball State offense vs Sacramento State defenseOffense -3.6Defense -7.8Edge Ball State: its offense is 4.2 points better than Sacramento State's defense.
Sacramento State offense vs Ball State defenseOffense -12.0Defense -8.0Edge Ball State: its defense is 4.0 points better than Sacramento State's offense.
| Stat | Ball State | Sacramento State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.12 | -0.11 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.24 | 0.20 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 39.6% | 36.7% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 42.3% | 41.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 22.0 | 15.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 35.3 | 32.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.