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Baylor vs Colorado prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
BAY 80% win20% COLO
29Projected
vs
17ProjectedNeutral site
Baylor Bears
Record 4–3 · #35 in ratings
Neutral site
Colorado Buffaloes
Record 2–5 · #105 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 75 vs 24
- Projected
- BAY favored
- Differential
- 12.1 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Baylor by 12.1
- Projected total
- 46.4
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 32.2%
- Went to overtime
- 3.0%
- Baylor wins by 21+
- 28.0%
- Colorado wins by 21+
- 1.4%
- Median score
- 29–17
- Model expectation
- 28.9–17
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Baylor wins, bars on the left are Colorado wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Baylor 27, Colorado 1081 games
- Baylor 27, Colorado 1778 games
- Baylor 24, Colorado 1074 games
- Baylor 20, Colorado 1068 games
- Baylor 27, Colorado 1463 games
- Baylor 20, Colorado 1763 games
Where the edges are
Baylor offense vs Colorado defenseOffense +1.1Defense -2.0Edge Baylor: its offense is 3.1 points better than Colorado's defense.
Colorado offense vs Baylor defenseOffense -4.2Defense +4.6Edge Baylor: its defense is 8.8 points better than Colorado's offense.
| Stat | Baylor | Colorado | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.08 | 0.02 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.06 | 0.07 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 37.5% | 40.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 35.4% | 39.7% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 29.1 | 20.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 16.1 | 30.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.