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Baylor vs Kansas prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
BAY 65% win35% KU
27Projected
vs
21ProjectedNeutral site
Baylor Bears
Record 4–3 · #35 in ratings
Neutral site
Kansas Jayhawks
Record 3–4 · #71 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 75 vs 49
- Projected
- BAY favored
- Differential
- 5.7 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Baylor by 5.7
- Projected total
- 48.5
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 40.5%
- Went to overtime
- 3.7%
- Baylor wins by 21+
- 15.8%
- Kansas wins by 21+
- 4.1%
- Median score
- 27–21
- Model expectation
- 26.7–21.2
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Baylor wins, bars on the left are Kansas wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Baylor 20, Kansas 1777 games
- Baylor 24, Kansas 2073 games
- Baylor 24, Kansas 1762 games
- Kansas 24, Baylor 2058 games
- Baylor 30, Kansas 1754 games
- Baylor 24, Kansas 1053 games
Where the edges are
Baylor offense vs Kansas defenseOffense +1.1Defense +0.1Even: neither side has a real edge.
Kansas offense vs Baylor defenseOffense +0.0Defense +4.6Edge Baylor: its defense is 4.5 points better than Kansas's offense.
| Stat | Baylor | Kansas | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.08 | 0.12 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.06 | 0.03 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 37.5% | 41.7% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 35.4% | 38.2% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 29.1 | 31.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 16.1 | 24.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.