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Baylor vs UCF prediction
Kickoff Fri 6:30 PM CT, at UCF
BAY 44% win56% UCF
24Projected
vs
26ProjectedAway
Baylor Bears
Record 4–3 · #35 in ratings
Home
UCF Knights
Record 4–3 · #40 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 75 vs 72
- Projected
- UCF favored
- Differential
- 2.2 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at UCF, luck set to normal. The real game is Fri 6:30 PM CT, at UCF.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- UCF by 2.2
- Projected total
- 49.4
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 43.0%
- Went to overtime
- 4.1%
- Baylor wins by 21+
- 6.8%
- UCF wins by 21+
- 11.4%
- Median score
- 23–26
- Model expectation
- 23.3–25.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Baylor wins, bars on the left are UCF wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Baylor 24, UCF 1761 games
- UCF 27, Baylor 2060 games
- Baylor 24, UCF 2060 games
- UCF 27, Baylor 2456 games
- UCF 20, Baylor 1755 games
- UCF 27, Baylor 1755 games
Where the edges are
Baylor offense vs UCF defenseOffense +1.1Defense +2.0Even: neither side has a real edge.
UCF offense vs Baylor defenseOffense +2.7Defense +4.6Edge Baylor: its defense is 1.9 points better than UCF's offense.
| Stat | Baylor | UCF | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.08 | 0.10 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.06 | 0.03 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 37.5% | 42.5% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 35.4% | 40.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 29.1 | 32.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 16.1 | 23.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.