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Boise State vs Colorado State prediction
Kickoff Sat 5:00 PM CT, at Colorado State
BOIS 78% win22% CSU
46Projected37If CSU upsets
vs
35Projected45If CSU upsetsAway
Boise State Broncos
Record 6–1 · #25 in ratings
Home
Colorado State Rams
Record 3–4 · #110 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (43)
Starts at 43, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | BOIS | CSU | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 1.4 | 2.9 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 56 | 38 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Upset alert22%Colorado State wins at home
At a neutral site17% ▼
Colorado State: 1 win over a higher-rated team (San Diego State 56–49)
Boise State: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (Oregon 27–34)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Colorado State won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- BOIS 44, CSU 3045 games
- BOIS 47, CSU 3744 games
- BOIS 44, CSU 2741 games
- BOIS 40, CSU 3139 games
- BOIS 47, CSU 3438 games
- Power index
- 82 vs 20
- Projected
- BOIS favored
- Differential
- 11.3 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Colorado State, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 5:00 PM CT, at Colorado State.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Boise State by 11.3
- Projected total
- 80.2
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 32.9%
- Went to overtime
- 2.1%
- Boise State wins by 21+
- 26.6%
- Colorado State wins by 21+
- 1.7%
- Median score
- 46–34
- Model expectation
- 45.7–34.3
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Boise State wins, bars on the left are Colorado State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Boise State offense vs Colorado State defenseOffense +6.4Defense -15.0Edge Boise State: its offense is 21.4 points better than Colorado State's defense.
Colorado State offense vs Boise State defenseOffense +8.1Defense +1.1Edge Colorado State: its offense is 7.0 points better than Boise State's defense.
| Stat | Boise State | Colorado State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.32 | 0.30 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.03 | 0.35 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 47.7% | 47.8% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 36.4% | 54.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 34.4 | 38.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 20.6 | 44.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
