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Boise State vs San Diego State prediction
Kickoff Sat 8:30 PM CT, at Boise State
BOIS 87% win13% SDSU
39Projected27If SDSU upsets
vs
22Projected35If SDSU upsetsHome
Boise State Broncos
Record 6–1 · #25 in ratings
Away
San Diego State Aztecs
Record 3–5 · #104 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (43)
Starts at 43, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | BOIS | SDSU | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 1.4 | 2.8 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 56 | 43 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Upset alert13%San Diego State wins on the road
If San Diego State plays at home24% ▲
San Diego State: 2 wins over higher-rated teams (Fresno State 26–23, Texas State 31–29)
Boise State: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (Oregon 27–34)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games San Diego State won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- BOIS 37, SDSU 1756 games
- BOIS 37, SDSU 2449 games
- BOIS 37, SDSU 2049 games
- BOIS 34, SDSU 1747 games
- BOIS 30, SDSU 1747 games
- Power index
- 82 vs 25
- Projected
- BOIS favored
- Differential
- 16.4 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Boise State, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 8:30 PM CT, at Boise State.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Boise State by 16.4
- Projected total
- 61.1
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 25.1%
- Went to overtime
- 2.1%
- Boise State wins by 21+
- 39.2%
- San Diego State wins by 21+
- 0.7%
- Median score
- 38–21
- Model expectation
- 38.7–22
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Boise State wins, bars on the left are San Diego State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Boise State offense vs San Diego State defenseOffense +6.4Defense -5.0Edge Boise State: its offense is 11.4 points better than San Diego State's defense.
San Diego State offense vs Boise State defenseOffense -1.2Defense +1.1Edge Boise State: its defense is 2.3 points better than San Diego State's offense.
| Stat | Boise State | San Diego State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.32 | 0.01 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.03 | 0.16 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 47.7% | 36.9% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 36.4% | 48.6% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 34.4 | 26.5 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 20.6 | 36.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
