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Boise State vs Texas State prediction
Kickoff Sat 9:00 PM CT, at Boise State
BOIS 74% win26% TXST
36Projected
vs
26ProjectedHome
Boise State Broncos
Record 6–1 · #25 in ratings
Away
Texas State Bobcats
Record 4–3 · #62 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 82 vs 55
- Projected
- BOIS favored
- Differential
- 9.7 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Boise State, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 9:00 PM CT, at Boise State.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Boise State by 9.7
- Projected total
- 61.7
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 35.3%
- Went to overtime
- 2.7%
- Boise State wins by 21+
- 23.5%
- Texas State wins by 21+
- 2.4%
- Median score
- 36–26
- Model expectation
- 35.5–25.8
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Boise State wins, bars on the left are Texas State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Boise State 37, Texas State 2748 games
- Boise State 37, Texas State 2447 games
- Boise State 34, Texas State 2744 games
- Boise State 37, Texas State 2043 games
- Boise State 34, Texas State 1743 games
- Boise State 30, Texas State 2743 games
Where the edges are
Boise State offense vs Texas State defenseOffense +6.4Defense -1.9Edge Boise State: its offense is 8.3 points better than Texas State's defense.
Texas State offense vs Boise State defenseOffense +2.6Defense +1.1Edge Texas State: its offense is 1.6 points better than Boise State's defense.
| Stat | Boise State | Texas State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.32 | 0.28 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.03 | 0.16 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 47.7% | 50.9% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 36.4% | 44.1% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 34.4 | 37.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 20.6 | 30.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.