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Boise State vs Utah State prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
BOIS 87% win13% USU
31Projected
vs
15ProjectedNeutral site
Boise State Broncos
Record 6–1 · #25 in ratings
Neutral site
Utah State Aggies
Record 2–5 · #123 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 82 vs 11
- Projected
- BOIS favored
- Differential
- 16.2 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Boise State by 16.2
- Projected total
- 46.2
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 25.0%
- Went to overtime
- 2.1%
- Boise State wins by 21+
- 38.6%
- Utah State wins by 21+
- 0.6%
- Median score
- 31–14
- Model expectation
- 31.1–14.8
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Boise State wins, bars on the left are Utah State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Boise State 34, Utah State 1092 games
- Boise State 34, Utah State 1769 games
- Boise State 34, Utah State 769 games
- Boise State 27, Utah State 768 games
- Boise State 27, Utah State 1462 games
- Boise State 27, Utah State 1762 games
Where the edges are
Boise State offense vs Utah State defenseOffense +6.4Defense +1.1Edge Boise State: its offense is 5.3 points better than Utah State's defense.
Utah State offense vs Boise State defenseOffense -9.9Defense +1.1Edge Boise State: its defense is 11.0 points better than Utah State's offense.
| Stat | Boise State | Utah State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.32 | -0.04 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.03 | 0.04 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 47.7% | 36.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 36.4% | 40.2% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 34.4 | 14.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 20.6 | 23.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.