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Boston College vs Duke prediction
Kickoff Sat 11:00 AM CT, at Duke
BC 26% win74% DUKE
16Projected
vs
26ProjectedAway
Boston College Eagles
Record 4–3 · #83 in ratings
Home
Duke Blue Devils
Record 5–2 · #46 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 40 vs 67
- Projected
- DUKE favored
- Differential
- 9.1 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Duke, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 11:00 AM CT, at Duke.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Duke by 9.1
- Projected total
- 42.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 37.5%
- Went to overtime
- 3.7%
- Boston College wins by 21+
- 2.0%
- Duke wins by 21+
- 21.3%
- Median score
- 16–24
- Model expectation
- 16.1–25.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Boston College wins, bars on the left are Duke wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Duke 27, Boston College 1086 games
- Duke 20, Boston College 1081 games
- Duke 24, Boston College 1081 games
- Duke 27, Boston College 778 games
- Duke 24, Boston College 1774 games
- Duke 27, Boston College 1771 games
Where the edges are
Boston College offense vs Duke defenseOffense -3.5Defense +4.7Edge Duke: its defense is 8.2 points better than Boston College's offense.
Duke offense vs Boston College defenseOffense -0.8Defense +1.1Edge Boston College: its defense is 1.9 points better than Duke's offense.
| Stat | Boston College | Duke | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.06 | 0.21 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.01 | 0.04 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 41.1% | 42.3% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 40.6% | 39.3% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 24.4 | 29.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 23.6 | 16.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.