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Boston College vs Duke prediction
Kickoff Sat 11:00 AM CT, at Duke
BC 25% win75% DUKE
16Projected25If BC upsets
vs
26Projected16If BC upsetsAway
Boston College Eagles
Record 4–3 · #83 in ratings
Home
Duke Blue Devils
Record 5–2 · #46 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (52)
Starts at 52, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | BC | DUKE | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 3.3 | 1.6 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 62 | 70 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Live underdog25%Boston College wins on the road
If Boston College plays at home40% ▲
Boston College: 1 win over a higher-rated team (Pittsburgh 27–21)
Duke: 2 losses to lower-rated teams (North Carolina 20–24, Georgia Tech 25–28)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Boston College won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- DUKE 20, BC 1788 games
- DUKE 20, BC 1082 games
- DUKE 27, BC 1082 games
- DUKE 17, BC 1078 games
- DUKE 27, BC 1775 games
- Power index
- 40 vs 67
- Projected
- DUKE favored
- Differential
- 9.4 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Duke, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 11:00 AM CT, at Duke.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Duke by 9.4
- Projected total
- 42.2
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 36.8%
- Went to overtime
- 3.5%
- Boston College wins by 21+
- 2.0%
- Duke wins by 21+
- 21.4%
- Median score
- 16–26
- Model expectation
- 16.1–25.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Boston College wins, bars on the left are Duke wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Boston College offense vs Duke defenseOffense -3.5Defense +4.7Edge Duke: its defense is 8.2 points better than Boston College's offense.
Duke offense vs Boston College defenseOffense -0.8Defense +1.1Edge Boston College: its defense is 1.9 points better than Duke's offense.
| Stat | Boston College | Duke | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.06 | 0.21 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.01 | 0.04 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 41.1% | 42.3% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 40.6% | 39.3% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 24.4 | 29.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 23.6 | 16.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
More matchups this week
Delaware51.5%
Western Kentucky48.5%Tue 6:00 PM CT, at Western Kentucky28–27
Missouri State56.3%
Sam Houston43.7%Tue 7:00 PM CT, at Missouri State27–25
Middle Tennessee64.0%
Kennesaw State36.0%Wed 6:00 PM CT, at Middle Tennessee24–19
Jacksonville State51.2%
New Mexico State48.8%Wed 7:00 PM CT, at New Mexico State28–27
North Texas77.5%
Florida Atlantic22.5%Thu 6:30 PM CT, at North Texas46–34
James Madison91.7%
Troy8.3%Thu 6:30 PM CT, at James Madison37–16