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Boston College vs Notre Dame prediction
Kickoff Sat 2:30 PM CT, at Notre Dame
BC 5% win95% ND
12Projected25If BC upsets
vs
35Projected19If BC upsetsAway
Boston College Eagles
Record 4–3 · #83 in ratings
Home
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Record 6–1 · #1 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (52)
Starts at 52, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | BC | ND | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 3.3 | 2.6 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 62 | 29 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Long shot5%Boston College wins on the road
If Boston College plays at home11% ▲
Boston College: 1 win over a higher-rated team (Pittsburgh 27–21)
Notre Dame: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (BYU 24–28)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Boston College won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- ND 30, BC 7104 games
- ND 41, BC 791 games
- ND 27, BC 791 games
- ND 34, BC 784 games
- ND 37, BC 781 games
- Power index
- 40 vs 100
- Projected
- ND favored
- Differential
- 23.2 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Notre Dame, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 2:30 PM CT, at Notre Dame.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Notre Dame by 23.2
- Projected total
- 46.2
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 12.7%
- Went to overtime
- 0.9%
- Boston College wins by 21+
- 0.1%
- Notre Dame wins by 21+
- 57.2%
- Median score
- 10–34
- Model expectation
- 11.4–34.6
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Boston College wins, bars on the left are Notre Dame wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Boston College offense vs Notre Dame defenseOffense -3.5Defense +9.4Edge Notre Dame: its defense is 12.8 points better than Boston College's offense.
Notre Dame offense vs Boston College defenseOffense +8.4Defense +1.1Edge Notre Dame: its offense is 7.3 points better than Boston College's defense.
| Stat | Boston College | Notre Dame | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.06 | 0.36 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.01 | -0.08 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 41.1% | 50.9% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 40.6% | 34.5% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 24.4 | 41.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 23.6 | 13.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
