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Boston College vs Rutgers prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
BC 61% win39% RUTG
30Projected
vs
26ProjectedNeutral site
Boston College Eagles
Record 4–3 · #83 in ratings
Neutral site
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Record 2–5 · #107 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 40 vs 23
- Projected
- BC favored
- Differential
- 4.1 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Boston College by 4.1
- Projected total
- 55.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 41.1%
- Went to overtime
- 3.5%
- Boston College wins by 21+
- 13.9%
- Rutgers wins by 21+
- 5.5%
- Median score
- 30–24
- Model expectation
- 29.3–25.1
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Boston College wins, bars on the left are Rutgers wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Boston College 27, Rutgers 1761 games
- Boston College 30, Rutgers 2759 games
- Boston College 27, Rutgers 2053 games
- Boston College 24, Rutgers 2048 games
- Boston College 27, Rutgers 2447 games
- Boston College 23, Rutgers 2047 games
Where the edges are
Boston College offense vs Rutgers defenseOffense -3.5Defense -7.0Edge Boston College: its offense is 3.5 points better than Rutgers's defense.
Rutgers offense vs Boston College defenseOffense +0.4Defense +1.1Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | Boston College | Rutgers | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.06 | 0.10 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.01 | 0.29 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 41.1% | 44.7% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 40.6% | 49.3% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 24.4 | 28.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 23.6 | 33.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.