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Bowling Green vs Iowa State prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
BGSU 22% win79% ISU
17Projected
vs
28ProjectedNeutral site
Bowling Green Falcons
Record 2–6 · #132 in ratings
Neutral site
Iowa State Cyclones
Record 3–4 · #76 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 4 vs 45
- Projected
- ISU favored
- Differential
- 11.2 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Iowa State by 11.2
- Projected total
- 45.7
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 34.0%
- Went to overtime
- 3.1%
- Bowling Green wins by 21+
- 1.5%
- Iowa State wins by 21+
- 25.7%
- Median score
- 17–27
- Model expectation
- 17–28.2
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Bowling Green wins, bars on the left are Iowa State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Iowa State 27, Bowling Green 1076 games
- Iowa State 24, Bowling Green 1774 games
- Iowa State 27, Bowling Green 772 games
- Iowa State 20, Bowling Green 1072 games
- Iowa State 20, Bowling Green 1771 games
- Iowa State 34, Bowling Green 1760 games
Where the edges are
Bowling Green offense vs Iowa State defenseOffense -7.9Defense +0.8Edge Iowa State: its defense is 8.8 points better than Bowling Green's offense.
Iowa State offense vs Bowling Green defenseOffense -1.6Defense -4.0Edge Iowa State: its offense is 2.5 points better than Bowling Green's defense.
| Stat | Bowling Green | Iowa State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.01 | 0.09 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.16 | 0.13 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 41.3% | 38.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 45.8% | 42.1% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 18.8 | 25.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 29.8 | 24.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.