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Bowling Green vs Kent State prediction
Kickoff Tue 6:00 PM CT, at Bowling Green
BGSU 57% win43% KENT
21Projected15If KENT upsets
vs
19Projected25If KENT upsetsHome
Bowling Green Falcons
Record 2–6 · #132 in ratings
Away
Kent State Golden Flashes
Record 3–5 · #128 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (49)
Starts at 49, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | BGSU | KENT | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 49 | 67 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Toss-up43%Kent State wins on the road
If Kent State plays at home61% ▲
Kent State: no wins over higher-rated teams in 7 FBS games
Bowling Green: no losses to lower-rated teams in 7 FBS games
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Kent State won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- BGSU 20, KENT 1791 games
- BGSU 24, KENT 1786 games
- KENT 17, BGSU 1385 games
- BGSU 17, KENT 1381 games
- BGSU 20, KENT 1079 games
- Power index
- 4 vs 7
- Projected
- BGSU favored
- Differential
- 2.2 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Bowling Green, luck set to normal. The real game is Tue 6:00 PM CT, at Bowling Green.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Bowling Green by 2.2
- Projected total
- 39.2
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 47.5%
- Went to overtime
- 5.4%
- Bowling Green wins by 21+
- 8.7%
- Kent State wins by 21+
- 4.8%
- Median score
- 20–17
- Model expectation
- 20.3–18.1
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Bowling Green wins, bars on the left are Kent State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Bowling Green offense vs Kent State defenseOffense -7.9Defense -1.0Edge Kent State: its defense is 6.9 points better than Bowling Green's offense.
Kent State offense vs Bowling Green defenseOffense -10.2Defense -4.0Edge Bowling Green: its defense is 6.2 points better than Kent State's offense.
| Stat | Bowling Green | Kent State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.01 | -0.01 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.16 | 0.11 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 41.3% | 35.3% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 45.8% | 45.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 18.8 | 14.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 29.8 | 30.5 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
