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Bowling Green vs Miami (OH) prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
BGSU 30% win70% M-OH
20Projected
vs
28ProjectedNeutral site
Bowling Green Falcons
Record 2–6 · #132 in ratings
Neutral site
Miami (OH) RedHawks
Record 5–3 · #95 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 4 vs 31
- Projected
- M-OH favored
- Differential
- 7.6 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Miami (OH) by 7.6
- Projected total
- 48.4
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 39.7%
- Went to overtime
- 3.4%
- Bowling Green wins by 21+
- 2.5%
- Miami (OH) wins by 21+
- 18.6%
- Median score
- 20–27
- Model expectation
- 20.1–27.8
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Bowling Green wins, bars on the left are Miami (OH) wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Miami (OH) 27, Bowling Green 1768 games
- Miami (OH) 27, Bowling Green 2061 games
- Miami (OH) 24, Bowling Green 1759 games
- Miami (OH) 27, Bowling Green 2459 games
- Miami (OH) 27, Bowling Green 1357 games
- Miami (OH) 27, Bowling Green 1056 games
Where the edges are
Bowling Green offense vs Miami (OH) defenseOffense -7.9Defense -2.3Edge Miami (OH): its defense is 5.6 points better than Bowling Green's offense.
Miami (OH) offense vs Bowling Green defenseOffense -2.0Defense -4.0Edge Miami (OH): its offense is 2.0 points better than Bowling Green's defense.
| Stat | Bowling Green | Miami (OH) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.01 | 0.15 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.16 | 0.10 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 41.3% | 41.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 45.8% | 40.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 18.8 | 27.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 29.8 | 25.8 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.