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Bowling Green vs Sacramento State prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
BGSU 72% win28% SAC
26Projected
vs
18ProjectedNeutral site
Bowling Green Falcons
Record 2–6 · #132 in ratings
Neutral site
Sacramento State Hornets
Record 1–7 · #137 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 4 vs 1
- Projected
- BGSU favored
- Differential
- 8.0 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Bowling Green by 8.0
- Projected total
- 43.7
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 40.0%
- Went to overtime
- 3.9%
- Bowling Green wins by 21+
- 18.4%
- Sacramento State wins by 21+
- 2.0%
- Median score
- 26–17
- Model expectation
- 25.7–17.8
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Bowling Green wins, bars on the left are Sacramento State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Bowling Green 20, Sacramento State 1784 games
- Bowling Green 24, Sacramento State 1775 games
- Bowling Green 20, Sacramento State 1371 games
- Bowling Green 17, Sacramento State 1071 games
- Bowling Green 27, Sacramento State 1070 games
- Bowling Green 27, Sacramento State 1769 games
Where the edges are
Bowling Green offense vs Sacramento State defenseOffense -7.9Defense -7.8Even: neither side has a real edge.
Sacramento State offense vs Bowling Green defenseOffense -12.0Defense -4.0Edge Bowling Green: its defense is 8.0 points better than Sacramento State's offense.
| Stat | Bowling Green | Sacramento State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.01 | -0.11 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.16 | 0.20 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 41.3% | 36.7% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 45.8% | 41.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 18.8 | 15.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 29.8 | 32.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.