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Bowling Green vs South Florida prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
BGSU 15% win85% USF
14Projected
vs
28ProjectedNeutral site
Bowling Green Falcons
Record 2–6 · #132 in ratings
Neutral site
South Florida Bulls
Record 5–2 · #56 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 4 vs 60
- Projected
- USF favored
- Differential
- 14.0 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- South Florida by 14.0
- Projected total
- 41.7
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 29.2%
- Went to overtime
- 2.7%
- Bowling Green wins by 21+
- 0.7%
- South Florida wins by 21+
- 31.2%
- Median score
- 13–27
- Model expectation
- 13.6–27.6
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Bowling Green wins, bars on the left are South Florida wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- South Florida 27, Bowling Green 10108 games
- South Florida 20, Bowling Green 791 games
- South Florida 34, Bowling Green 785 games
- South Florida 27, Bowling Green 1483 games
- South Florida 24, Bowling Green 1077 games
- South Florida 27, Bowling Green 1776 games
Where the edges are
Bowling Green offense vs South Florida defenseOffense -7.9Defense +4.2Edge South Florida: its defense is 12.1 points better than Bowling Green's offense.
South Florida offense vs Bowling Green defenseOffense -2.2Defense -4.0Edge South Florida: its offense is 1.8 points better than Bowling Green's defense.
| Stat | Bowling Green | South Florida | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.01 | 0.13 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.16 | 0.01 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 41.3% | 47.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 45.8% | 42.3% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 18.8 | 26.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 29.8 | 15.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.