Loading the matchup…
Bowling Green vs Toledo prediction
Kickoff Fri 6:30 PM CT, at Toledo
BGSU 15% win85% TOL
20Projected32If BGSU upsets
vs
36Projected24If BGSU upsetsAway
Bowling Green Falcons
Record 2–6 · #132 in ratings
Home
Toledo Rockets
Record 6–2 · #65 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (51)
Starts at 51, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | BGSU | TOL | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 49 | 74 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Upset alert15%Bowling Green wins on the road
If Bowling Green plays at home26% ▲
Bowling Green: 1 win over a higher-rated team (Miami (OH) 24–20)
Toledo: 2 losses to lower-rated teams (Buffalo 8–23, Michigan State 20–30)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Bowling Green won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- TOL 27, BGSU 1762 games
- TOL 37, BGSU 1759 games
- TOL 34, BGSU 2058 games
- TOL 34, BGSU 2458 games
- TOL 30, BGSU 1752 games
- Power index
- 4 vs 53
- Projected
- TOL favored
- Differential
- 15.3 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Toledo, luck set to normal. The real game is Fri 6:30 PM CT, at Toledo.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Toledo by 15.3
- Projected total
- 55.6
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 26.0%
- Went to overtime
- 1.8%
- Bowling Green wins by 21+
- 0.7%
- Toledo wins by 21+
- 35.9%
- Median score
- 20–35
- Model expectation
- 19.9–35.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Bowling Green wins, bars on the left are Toledo wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Bowling Green offense vs Toledo defenseOffense -7.9Defense -3.5Edge Toledo: its defense is 4.4 points better than Bowling Green's offense.
Toledo offense vs Bowling Green defenseOffense +4.1Defense -4.0Edge Toledo: its offense is 8.1 points better than Bowling Green's defense.
| Stat | Bowling Green | Toledo | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.01 | 0.24 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.16 | -0.02 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 41.3% | 45.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 45.8% | 33.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 18.8 | 37.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 29.8 | 25.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
