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Bowling Green vs Western Michigan prediction
Kickoff Sat 11:00 AM CT, at Western Michigan
BGSU 13% win87% WMU
15Projected
vs
31ProjectedAway
Bowling Green Falcons
Record 2–6 · #132 in ratings
Home
Western Michigan Broncos
Record 5–3 · #66 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 4 vs 53
- Projected
- WMU favored
- Differential
- 15.6 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Western Michigan, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 11:00 AM CT, at Western Michigan.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Western Michigan by 15.6
- Projected total
- 46.1
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 25.5%
- Went to overtime
- 2.1%
- Bowling Green wins by 21+
- 0.7%
- Western Michigan wins by 21+
- 35.7%
- Median score
- 14–30
- Model expectation
- 15.1–30.6
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Bowling Green wins, bars on the left are Western Michigan wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Western Michigan 34, Bowling Green 1092 games
- Western Michigan 27, Bowling Green 1075 games
- Western Michigan 27, Bowling Green 773 games
- Western Michigan 27, Bowling Green 1772 games
- Western Michigan 30, Bowling Green 1067 games
- Western Michigan 30, Bowling Green 1764 games
Where the edges are
Bowling Green offense vs Western Michigan defenseOffense -7.9Defense +1.2Edge Western Michigan: its defense is 9.2 points better than Bowling Green's offense.
Western Michigan offense vs Bowling Green defenseOffense -0.7Defense -4.0Edge Western Michigan: its offense is 3.3 points better than Bowling Green's defense.
| Stat | Bowling Green | Western Michigan | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.01 | 0.13 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.16 | 0.10 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 41.3% | 42.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 45.8% | 43.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 18.8 | 26.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 29.8 | 20.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.