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Buffalo vs Central Michigan prediction
Kickoff Tue 11:00 PM CT, at Buffalo
BUF 57% win43% CMU
24Projected17If CMU upsets
vs
21Projected28If CMU upsetsHome
Buffalo Bulls
Record 5–3 · #122 in ratings
Away
Central Michigan Chippewas
Record 3–5 · #117 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (54)
Starts at 54, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | BUF | CMU | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.6 | 3.1 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 47 | 60 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Toss-up43%Central Michigan wins on the road
If Central Michigan plays at home58% ▲
Central Michigan: 1 win over a higher-rated team (Wyoming 24–10)
Buffalo: no losses to lower-rated teams in 6 FBS games
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Central Michigan won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- BUF 24, CMU 1787 games
- CMU 24, BUF 1773 games
- BUF 20, CMU 1772 games
- BUF 24, CMU 2070 games
- CMU 24, BUF 2069 games
- Power index
- 12 vs 15
- Projected
- BUF favored
- Differential
- 2.6 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Buffalo, luck set to normal. The real game is Tue 11:00 PM CT, at Buffalo.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Buffalo by 2.6
- Projected total
- 44.4
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 44.6%
- Went to overtime
- 4.7%
- Buffalo wins by 21+
- 11.5%
- Central Michigan wins by 21+
- 6.0%
- Median score
- 23–20
- Model expectation
- 23.2–20.5
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Buffalo wins, bars on the left are Central Michigan wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Buffalo offense vs Central Michigan defenseOffense -4.9Defense -0.8Edge Central Michigan: its defense is 4.1 points better than Buffalo's offense.
Central Michigan offense vs Buffalo defenseOffense -7.5Defense -3.7Edge Buffalo: its defense is 3.8 points better than Central Michigan's offense.
| Stat | Buffalo | Central Michigan | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.04 | 0.05 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.09 | 0.19 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 35.8% | 39.4% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 39.1% | 46.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 22.6 | 17.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 25.4 | 25.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
