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Buffalo vs Florida International prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
BUF 33% win67% FIU
17Projected
vs
22ProjectedNeutral site
Buffalo Bulls
Record 5–3 · #122 in ratings
Neutral site
Florida International Panthers
Record 3–4 · #85 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 12 vs 39
- Projected
- FIU favored
- Differential
- 5.8 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Florida International by 5.8
- Projected total
- 39.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 43.2%
- Went to overtime
- 4.7%
- Buffalo wins by 21+
- 3.2%
- Florida International wins by 21+
- 14.6%
- Median score
- 16–22
- Model expectation
- 16.3–22
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Buffalo wins, bars on the left are Florida International wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Florida International 20, Buffalo 17103 games
- Florida International 17, Buffalo 1089 games
- Florida International 24, Buffalo 1786 games
- Florida International 13, Buffalo 1085 games
- Florida International 17, Buffalo 1383 games
- Florida International 24, Buffalo 1078 games
Where the edges are
Buffalo offense vs Florida International defenseOffense -4.9Defense +4.6Edge Florida International: its defense is 9.5 points better than Buffalo's offense.
Florida International offense vs Buffalo defenseOffense -7.5Defense -3.7Edge Buffalo: its defense is 3.7 points better than Florida International's offense.
| Stat | Buffalo | Florida International | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.04 | 0.03 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.09 | 0.01 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 35.8% | 39.7% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 39.1% | 37.1% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 22.6 | 20.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 25.4 | 16.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.