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Buffalo vs Massachusetts prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
BUF 42% win58% MASS
23Projected
vs
26ProjectedNeutral site
Buffalo Bulls
Record 5–3 · #122 in ratings
Neutral site
Massachusetts Minutemen
Record 4–4 · #101 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 12 vs 27
- Projected
- MASS favored
- Differential
- 3.0 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Massachusetts by 3.0
- Projected total
- 48.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 42.7%
- Went to overtime
- 3.6%
- Buffalo wins by 21+
- 5.9%
- Massachusetts wins by 21+
- 12.0%
- Median score
- 23–24
- Model expectation
- 22.3–25.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Buffalo wins, bars on the left are Massachusetts wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Massachusetts 20, Buffalo 1776 games
- Massachusetts 27, Buffalo 2064 games
- Massachusetts 24, Buffalo 2063 games
- Massachusetts 27, Buffalo 2462 games
- Buffalo 24, Massachusetts 2055 games
- Buffalo 27, Massachusetts 1753 games
Where the edges are
Buffalo offense vs Massachusetts defenseOffense -4.9Defense -1.4Edge Massachusetts: its defense is 3.5 points better than Buffalo's offense.
Massachusetts offense vs Buffalo defenseOffense -4.2Defense -3.7Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | Buffalo | Massachusetts | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.04 | 0.14 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.09 | 0.01 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 35.8% | 41.2% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 39.1% | 39.1% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 22.6 | 26.5 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 25.4 | 21.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.