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BYU vs TCU prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
BYU 65% win35% TCU
21Projected
vs
15ProjectedNeutral site
BYU Cougars
Record 6–1 · #18 in ratings
Neutral site
TCU Horned Frogs
Record 3–4 · #48 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 88 vs 66
- Projected
- BYU favored
- Differential
- 5.3 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- BYU by 5.3
- Projected total
- 35.6
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 44.9%
- Went to overtime
- 4.8%
- BYU wins by 21+
- 13.1%
- TCU wins by 21+
- 2.9%
- Median score
- 20–14
- Model expectation
- 20.1–14.8
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are BYU wins, bars on the left are TCU wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- BYU 17, TCU 10111 games
- BYU 24, TCU 1096 games
- BYU 17, TCU 795 games
- BYU 20, TCU 790 games
- BYU 14, TCU 1089 games
- BYU 24, TCU 1789 games
Where the edges are
BYU offense vs TCU defenseOffense +3.2Defense +8.9Edge TCU: its defense is 5.7 points better than BYU's offense.
TCU offense vs BYU defenseOffense -5.2Defense +5.7Edge BYU: its defense is 10.9 points better than TCU's offense.
| Stat | BYU | TCU | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.29 | 0.08 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.04 | -0.06 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 47.9% | 41.8% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 38.8% | 34.7% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 33.1 | 23.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 18.6 | 13.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.