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California vs Clemson prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
CAL 30% win70% CLEM
20Projected
vs
27ProjectedNeutral site
California Golden Bears
Record 3–5 · #111 in ratings
Neutral site
Clemson Tigers
Record 4–3 · #69 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 20 vs 50
- Projected
- CLEM favored
- Differential
- 7.4 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Clemson by 7.4
- Projected total
- 47.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 39.4%
- Went to overtime
- 3.7%
- California wins by 21+
- 3.0%
- Clemson wins by 21+
- 18.5%
- Median score
- 20–27
- Model expectation
- 19.5–26.8
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are California wins, bars on the left are Clemson wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Clemson 24, California 1774 games
- Clemson 20, California 1769 games
- Clemson 27, California 1762 games
- Clemson 27, California 2062 games
- Clemson 31, California 1061 games
- Clemson 27, California 1059 games
Where the edges are
California offense vs Clemson defenseOffense -1.8Defense +4.4Edge Clemson: its defense is 6.2 points better than California's offense.
Clemson offense vs California defenseOffense -4.2Defense -5.2Edge Clemson: its offense is 1.1 points better than California's defense.
| Stat | California | Clemson | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | -0.02 | -0.03 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.18 | 0.01 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 37.5% | 36.8% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 40.7% | 40.3% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 23.4 | 21.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 31.6 | 21.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.