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California vs NC State prediction
Kickoff Sat 11:00 AM CT, at NC State
CAL 34% win66% NCSU
26Projected
vs
32ProjectedAway
California Golden Bears
Record 3–5 · #111 in ratings
Home
NC State Wolfpack
Record 3–4 · #93 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 20 vs 33
- Projected
- NCSU favored
- Differential
- 5.9 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at NC State, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 11:00 AM CT, at NC State.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- NC State by 5.9
- Projected total
- 58.7
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 40.5%
- Went to overtime
- 3.1%
- California wins by 21+
- 4.4%
- NC State wins by 21+
- 16.9%
- Median score
- 26–31
- Model expectation
- 26.2–32.1
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are California wins, bars on the left are NC State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- NC State 27, California 2067 games
- NC State 34, California 3052 games
- California 27, NC State 2047 games
- NC State 34, California 2746 games
- NC State 24, California 2044 games
- NC State 30, California 2044 games
Where the edges are
California offense vs NC State defenseOffense -1.8Defense -3.7Edge California: its offense is 1.9 points better than NC State's defense.
NC State offense vs California defenseOffense -0.4Defense -5.2Edge NC State: its offense is 4.8 points better than California's defense.
| Stat | California | NC State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | -0.02 | 0.22 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.18 | 0.23 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 37.5% | 45.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 40.7% | 44.5% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 23.4 | 32.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 31.6 | 28.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.