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California vs SMU prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
CAL 20% win80% SMU
23Projected
vs
35ProjectedNeutral site
California Golden Bears
Record 3–5 · #111 in ratings
Neutral site
SMU Mustangs
Record 6–1 · #37 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 20 vs 74
- Projected
- SMU favored
- Differential
- 12.5 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- SMU by 12.5
- Projected total
- 57.6
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 31.3%
- Went to overtime
- 2.2%
- California wins by 21+
- 1.7%
- SMU wins by 21+
- 30.0%
- Median score
- 22–34
- Model expectation
- 22.3–34.8
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are California wins, bars on the left are SMU wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- SMU 34, California 1755 games
- SMU 37, California 1751 games
- SMU 27, California 2048 games
- SMU 34, California 2748 games
- SMU 27, California 1746 games
- SMU 41, California 2745 games
Where the edges are
California offense vs SMU defenseOffense -1.8Defense +1.6Edge SMU: its defense is 3.4 points better than California's offense.
SMU offense vs California defenseOffense +3.8Defense -5.2Edge SMU: its offense is 9.1 points better than California's defense.
| Stat | California | SMU | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | -0.02 | 0.24 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.18 | 0.07 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 37.5% | 49.3% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 40.7% | 37.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 23.4 | 36.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 31.6 | 21.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.