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California vs Stanford prediction
Kickoff Fri 11:00 PM CT, at California
CAL 62% win38% STAN
30Projected22If STAN upsets
vs
25Projected33If STAN upsetsHome
California Golden Bears
Record 3–5 · #111 in ratings
Away
Stanford Cardinal
Record 4–4 · #121 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (47)
Starts at 47, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | CAL | STAN | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.1 | 1.6 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 85 | 58 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Live underdog38%Stanford wins on the road
If Stanford plays at home54% ▲
Stanford: 3 wins over higher-rated teams (NC State 31–28, Georgia Tech 34–27 +1 more)
California: no losses to lower-rated teams in 7 FBS games
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Stanford won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- CAL 27, STAN 2063 games
- CAL 34, STAN 1762 games
- CAL 27, STAN 1759 games
- CAL 31, STAN 1752 games
- STAN 24, CAL 2051 games
- Power index
- 20 vs 12
- Projected
- CAL favored
- Differential
- 4.7 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at California, luck set to normal. The real game is Fri 11:00 PM CT, at California.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- California by 4.7
- Projected total
- 54.9
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 40.8%
- Went to overtime
- 3.6%
- California wins by 21+
- 14.6%
- Stanford wins by 21+
- 4.6%
- Median score
- 30–24
- Model expectation
- 29.3–24.8
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are California wins, bars on the left are Stanford wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
California offense vs Stanford defenseOffense -1.8Defense -3.9Edge California: its offense is 2.0 points better than Stanford's defense.
Stanford offense vs California defenseOffense -4.8Defense -5.2Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | California | Stanford | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | -0.02 | 0.18 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.18 | 0.31 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 37.5% | 40.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 40.7% | 47.0% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 23.4 | 19.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 31.6 | 35.5 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.