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California vs Syracuse prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
CAL 34% win66% SYR
26Projected
vs
32ProjectedNeutral site
California Golden Bears
Record 3–5 · #111 in ratings
Neutral site
Syracuse Orange
Record 3–4 · #75 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 20 vs 46
- Projected
- SYR favored
- Differential
- 6.3 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Syracuse by 6.3
- Projected total
- 57.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 39.4%
- Went to overtime
- 3.2%
- California wins by 21+
- 4.4%
- Syracuse wins by 21+
- 17.9%
- Median score
- 24–31
- Model expectation
- 25–31.6
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are California wins, bars on the left are Syracuse wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- California 34, Syracuse 3051 games
- Syracuse 27, California 2049 games
- Syracuse 34, California 2047 games
- Syracuse 30, California 2747 games
- Syracuse 34, California 3044 games
- Syracuse 34, California 1742 games
Where the edges are
California offense vs Syracuse defenseOffense -1.8Defense -1.1Even: neither side has a real edge.
Syracuse offense vs California defenseOffense +0.6Defense -5.2Edge Syracuse: its offense is 5.8 points better than California's defense.
| Stat | California | Syracuse | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | -0.02 | 0.06 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.18 | 0.10 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 37.5% | 42.2% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 40.7% | 42.6% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 23.4 | 31.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 31.6 | 26.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.