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California vs UCLA prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
CAL 9% win91% UCLA
16Projected
vs
36ProjectedNeutral site
California Golden Bears
Record 3–5 · #111 in ratings
Neutral site
UCLA Bruins
Record 7–0 · #8 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 20 vs 95
- Projected
- UCLA favored
- Differential
- 19.6 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- UCLA by 19.6
- Projected total
- 51.6
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 19.4%
- Went to overtime
- 1.4%
- California wins by 21+
- 0.4%
- UCLA wins by 21+
- 46.9%
- Median score
- 15–35
- Model expectation
- 16–35.5
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are California wins, bars on the left are UCLA wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- UCLA 30, California 1066 games
- UCLA 37, California 1763 games
- UCLA 37, California 1063 games
- UCLA 34, California 1462 games
- UCLA 34, California 757 games
- UCLA 41, California 754 games
Where the edges are
California offense vs UCLA defenseOffense -1.8Defense +8.0Edge UCLA: its defense is 9.8 points better than California's offense.
UCLA offense vs California defenseOffense +4.5Defense -5.2Edge UCLA: its offense is 9.7 points better than California's defense.
| Stat | California | UCLA | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | -0.02 | 0.16 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.18 | -0.18 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 37.5% | 46.8% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 40.7% | 33.3% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 23.4 | 34.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 31.6 | 15.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.