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California vs Virginia Tech prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
CAL 26% win74% VT
24Projected
vs
33ProjectedNeutral site
California Golden Bears
Record 3–5 · #111 in ratings
Neutral site
Virginia Tech Hokies
Record 6–2 · #53 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 20 vs 62
- Projected
- VT favored
- Differential
- 9.7 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Virginia Tech by 9.7
- Projected total
- 56.6
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 35.6%
- Went to overtime
- 3.0%
- California wins by 21+
- 2.4%
- Virginia Tech wins by 21+
- 23.6%
- Median score
- 23–33
- Model expectation
- 23.2–33
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are California wins, bars on the left are Virginia Tech wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Virginia Tech 30, California 2052 games
- Virginia Tech 41, California 1752 games
- Virginia Tech 34, California 1751 games
- Virginia Tech 27, California 1750 games
- Virginia Tech 30, California 1750 games
- Virginia Tech 27, California 2049 games
Where the edges are
California offense vs Virginia Tech defenseOffense -1.8Defense +0.8Edge Virginia Tech: its defense is 2.6 points better than California's offense.
Virginia Tech offense vs California defenseOffense +2.0Defense -5.2Edge Virginia Tech: its offense is 7.2 points better than California's defense.
| Stat | California | Virginia Tech | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | -0.02 | 0.19 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.18 | 0.07 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 37.5% | 44.5% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 40.7% | 38.6% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 23.4 | 35.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 31.6 | 20.5 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.