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California vs Wake Forest prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
CAL 10% win90% WAKE
18Projected
vs
36ProjectedNeutral site
California Golden Bears
Record 3–5 · #111 in ratings
Neutral site
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Record 6–1 · #11 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 20 vs 93
- Projected
- WAKE favored
- Differential
- 18.3 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Wake Forest by 18.3
- Projected total
- 53.4
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 21.7%
- Went to overtime
- 1.8%
- California wins by 21+
- 0.4%
- Wake Forest wins by 21+
- 43.6%
- Median score
- 17–36
- Model expectation
- 17.5–35.6
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are California wins, bars on the left are Wake Forest wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Wake Forest 41, California 1764 games
- Wake Forest 30, California 1059 games
- Wake Forest 34, California 1459 games
- Wake Forest 27, California 1057 games
- Wake Forest 34, California 1753 games
- Wake Forest 44, California 1752 games
Where the edges are
California offense vs Wake Forest defenseOffense -1.8Defense +6.4Edge Wake Forest: its defense is 8.2 points better than California's offense.
Wake Forest offense vs California defenseOffense +4.6Defense -5.2Edge Wake Forest: its offense is 9.9 points better than California's defense.
| Stat | California | Wake Forest | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | -0.02 | 0.36 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.18 | 0.07 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 37.5% | 49.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 40.7% | 41.0% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 23.4 | 37.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 31.6 | 19.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.