Loading the matchup…
Central Michigan vs Eastern Michigan prediction
Kickoff Tue 11:00 PM CT, at a neutral site
CMU 51% win49% EMU
22Projected16If EMU upsets
vs
21Projected27If EMU upsetsNeutral site
Central Michigan Chippewas
Record 3–5 · #117 in ratings
Neutral site
Eastern Michigan Eagles
Record 4–5 · #120 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (52)
Starts at 52, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | CMU | EMU | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 3.1 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 60 | 41 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Toss-up49%Eastern Michigan wins at a neutral site
If Eastern Michigan plays at home58% ▲
Eastern Michigan: 1 win over a higher-rated team (Massachusetts 38–14)
Central Michigan: no losses to lower-rated teams in 7 FBS games
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Eastern Michigan won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- CMU 24, EMU 1786 games
- CMU 24, EMU 2077 games
- EMU 24, CMU 2073 games
- EMU 20, CMU 1772 games
- CMU 20, EMU 1770 games
- Power index
- 15 vs 13
- Projected
- Pick'em
- Differential
- 0.4 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. The real game is Tue 11:00 PM CT, at a neutral site.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Pick'em
- Projected total
- 42.5
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 45.6%
- Went to overtime
- 4.7%
- Central Michigan wins by 21+
- 8.1%
- Eastern Michigan wins by 21+
- 7.3%
- Median score
- 21–20
- Model expectation
- 20.9–20.7
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Central Michigan wins, bars on the left are Eastern Michigan wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Central Michigan offense vs Eastern Michigan defenseOffense -7.5Defense -2.7Edge Eastern Michigan: its defense is 4.9 points better than Central Michigan's offense.
Eastern Michigan offense vs Central Michigan defenseOffense -5.8Defense -0.8Edge Central Michigan: its defense is 5.0 points better than Eastern Michigan's offense.
| Stat | Central Michigan | Eastern Michigan | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.05 | 0.03 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.19 | 0.13 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 39.4% | 39.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 46.8% | 43.0% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 17.9 | 21.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 25.9 | 25.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
