Loading the matchup…
Central Michigan vs Miami (OH) prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
CMU 38% win62% M-OH
21Projected
vs
25ProjectedNeutral site
Central Michigan Chippewas
Record 3–5 · #117 in ratings
Neutral site
Miami (OH) RedHawks
Record 5–3 · #95 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 15 vs 31
- Projected
- M-OH favored
- Differential
- 4.0 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Miami (OH) by 4.0
- Projected total
- 45.9
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 44.4%
- Went to overtime
- 4.3%
- Central Michigan wins by 21+
- 4.5%
- Miami (OH) wins by 21+
- 12.5%
- Median score
- 20–24
- Model expectation
- 20.5–24.6
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Central Michigan wins, bars on the left are Miami (OH) wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Miami (OH) 20, Central Michigan 1777 games
- Miami (OH) 24, Central Michigan 2077 games
- Miami (OH) 24, Central Michigan 1775 games
- Miami (OH) 27, Central Michigan 1769 games
- Miami (OH) 27, Central Michigan 1064 games
- Miami (OH) 20, Central Michigan 1362 games
Where the edges are
Central Michigan offense vs Miami (OH) defenseOffense -7.5Defense -2.3Edge Miami (OH): its defense is 5.3 points better than Central Michigan's offense.
Miami (OH) offense vs Central Michigan defenseOffense -2.0Defense -0.8Edge Central Michigan: its defense is 1.2 points better than Miami (OH)'s offense.
| Stat | Central Michigan | Miami (OH) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.05 | 0.15 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.19 | 0.10 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 39.4% | 41.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 46.8% | 40.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 17.9 | 27.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 25.9 | 25.8 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.