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Central Michigan vs New Mexico prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
CMU 10% win90% UNM
12Projected
vs
29ProjectedNeutral site
Central Michigan Chippewas
Record 3–5 · #117 in ratings
Neutral site
New Mexico Lobos
Record 6–1 · #19 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 15 vs 87
- Projected
- UNM favored
- Differential
- 17.0 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- New Mexico by 17.0
- Projected total
- 40.6
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 22.7%
- Went to overtime
- 1.9%
- Central Michigan wins by 21+
- 0.4%
- New Mexico wins by 21+
- 39.2%
- Median score
- 10–28
- Model expectation
- 11.7–28.8
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Central Michigan wins, bars on the left are New Mexico wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- New Mexico 27, Central Michigan 7116 games
- New Mexico 27, Central Michigan 10107 games
- New Mexico 20, Central Michigan 799 games
- New Mexico 34, Central Michigan 795 games
- New Mexico 31, Central Michigan 788 games
- New Mexico 23, Central Michigan 787 games
Where the edges are
Central Michigan offense vs New Mexico defenseOffense -7.5Defense +6.6Edge New Mexico: its defense is 14.1 points better than Central Michigan's offense.
New Mexico offense vs Central Michigan defenseOffense +2.2Defense -0.8Edge New Mexico: its offense is 3.0 points better than Central Michigan's defense.
| Stat | Central Michigan | New Mexico | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.05 | 0.16 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.19 | -0.17 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 39.4% | 42.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 46.8% | 30.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 17.9 | 37.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 25.9 | 11.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.