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Central Michigan vs Western Michigan prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
CMU 26% win74% WMU
17Projected
vs
26ProjectedNeutral site
Central Michigan Chippewas
Record 3–5 · #117 in ratings
Neutral site
Western Michigan Broncos
Record 5–3 · #66 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 15 vs 53
- Projected
- WMU favored
- Differential
- 9.0 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Western Michigan by 9.0
- Projected total
- 43.4
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 38.1%
- Went to overtime
- 3.6%
- Central Michigan wins by 21+
- 2.1%
- Western Michigan wins by 21+
- 20.4%
- Median score
- 17–26
- Model expectation
- 17–25.8
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Central Michigan wins, bars on the left are Western Michigan wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Western Michigan 20, Central Michigan 1792 games
- Western Michigan 27, Central Michigan 1788 games
- Western Michigan 24, Central Michigan 1080 games
- Western Michigan 20, Central Michigan 1076 games
- Western Michigan 24, Central Michigan 1774 games
- Western Michigan 27, Central Michigan 1466 games
Where the edges are
Central Michigan offense vs Western Michigan defenseOffense -7.5Defense +1.2Edge Western Michigan: its defense is 8.8 points better than Central Michigan's offense.
Western Michigan offense vs Central Michigan defenseOffense -0.7Defense -0.8Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | Central Michigan | Western Michigan | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.05 | 0.13 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.19 | 0.10 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 39.4% | 42.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 46.8% | 43.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 17.9 | 26.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 25.9 | 20.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.