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Central Michigan vs Wyoming prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
CMU 47% win53% WYO
17Projected
vs
18ProjectedNeutral site
Central Michigan Chippewas
Record 3–5 · #117 in ratings
Neutral site
Wyoming Cowboys
Record 5–3 · #113 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 15 vs 18
- Projected
- WYO favored
- Differential
- 0.8 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Wyoming by 0.8
- Projected total
- 35.7
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 49.2%
- Went to overtime
- 5.7%
- Central Michigan wins by 21+
- 5.7%
- Wyoming wins by 21+
- 7.1%
- Median score
- 17–17
- Model expectation
- 17–18
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Central Michigan wins, bars on the left are Wyoming wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Wyoming 17, Central Michigan 10111 games
- Wyoming 17, Central Michigan 13105 games
- Central Michigan 17, Wyoming 10101 games
- Central Michigan 17, Wyoming 1393 games
- Wyoming 17, Central Michigan 1490 games
- Wyoming 20, Central Michigan 1789 games
Where the edges are
Central Michigan offense vs Wyoming defenseOffense -7.5Defense +1.2Edge Wyoming: its defense is 8.7 points better than Central Michigan's offense.
Wyoming offense vs Central Michigan defenseOffense -8.6Defense -0.8Edge Central Michigan: its defense is 7.8 points better than Wyoming's offense.
| Stat | Central Michigan | Wyoming | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.05 | 0.13 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.19 | 0.13 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 39.4% | 46.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 46.8% | 44.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 17.9 | 19.5 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 25.9 | 20.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.