Loading the matchup…
Charlotte vs North Texas prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
CLT 9% win91% UNT
24Projected
vs
45ProjectedNeutral site
Charlotte 49ers
Record 1–6 · #135 in ratings
Neutral site
North Texas Mean Green
Record 5–2 · #41 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 2 vs 71
- Projected
- UNT favored
- Differential
- 20.3 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- North Texas by 20.3
- Projected total
- 68.7
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 18.2%
- Went to overtime
- 1.1%
- Charlotte wins by 21+
- 0.5%
- North Texas wins by 21+
- 49.6%
- Median score
- 24–44
- Model expectation
- 24.1–44.3
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Charlotte wins, bars on the left are North Texas wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- North Texas 40, Charlotte 2050 games
- North Texas 44, Charlotte 2749 games
- North Texas 51, Charlotte 2747 games
- North Texas 40, Charlotte 1743 games
- North Texas 44, Charlotte 1740 games
- North Texas 37, Charlotte 2439 games
Where the edges are
Charlotte offense vs North Texas defenseOffense -7.3Defense -5.6Edge North Texas: its defense is 1.7 points better than Charlotte's offense.
North Texas offense vs Charlotte defenseOffense +10.1Defense -8.5Edge North Texas: its offense is 18.5 points better than Charlotte's defense.
| Stat | Charlotte | North Texas | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | -0.02 | 0.37 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.25 | 0.15 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 37.8% | 49.8% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 48.4% | 44.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 19.1 | 43.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 40.6 | 30.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.