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Charlotte vs Ole Miss prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
CLT 3% win97% MISS
16Projected
vs
43ProjectedNeutral site
Charlotte 49ers
Record 1–6 · #135 in ratings
Neutral site
Ole Miss Rebels
Record 5–2 · #10 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 2 vs 93
- Projected
- MISS favored
- Differential
- 26.9 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Ole Miss by 26.9
- Projected total
- 58.7
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 8.8%
- Went to overtime
- 0.5%
- Charlotte wins by 21+
- 0.1%
- Ole Miss wins by 21+
- 67.5%
- Median score
- 14–43
- Model expectation
- 15.8–42.9
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Charlotte wins, bars on the left are Ole Miss wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Ole Miss 40, Charlotte 1768 games
- Ole Miss 51, Charlotte 1067 games
- Ole Miss 44, Charlotte 1065 games
- Ole Miss 44, Charlotte 764 games
- Ole Miss 47, Charlotte 1062 games
- Ole Miss 41, Charlotte 1759 games
Where the edges are
Charlotte offense vs Ole Miss defenseOffense -7.3Defense +2.7Edge Ole Miss: its defense is 10.0 points better than Charlotte's offense.
Ole Miss offense vs Charlotte defenseOffense +8.6Defense -8.5Edge Ole Miss: its offense is 17.1 points better than Charlotte's defense.
| Stat | Charlotte | Ole Miss | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | -0.02 | 0.26 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.25 | 0.16 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 37.8% | 48.2% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 48.4% | 43.2% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 19.1 | 36.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 40.6 | 25.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.