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Charlotte vs Tulane prediction
Kickoff Fri 6:00 PM CT, at Charlotte
CLT 25% win75% TULN
18Projected27If CLT upsets
vs
27Projected18If CLT upsetsHome
Charlotte 49ers
Record 1–6 · #135 in ratings
Away
Tulane Green Wave
Record 3–4 · #89 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (53)
Starts at 53, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | CLT | TULN | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.9 | 3.0 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 43 | 54 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Live underdog25%Charlotte wins at home
At a neutral site20% ▼
Charlotte: 1 win over a higher-rated team (Temple 38–31)
Tulane: no losses to lower-rated teams in 7 FBS games
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Charlotte won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- TULN 27, CLT 1777 games
- TULN 20, CLT 1066 games
- TULN 27, CLT 766 games
- TULN 27, CLT 1065 games
- TULN 24, CLT 1064 games
- Power index
- 2 vs 36
- Projected
- TULN favored
- Differential
- 9.4 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Charlotte, luck set to normal. The real game is Fri 6:00 PM CT, at Charlotte.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Tulane by 9.4
- Projected total
- 45.1
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 36.5%
- Went to overtime
- 3.7%
- Charlotte wins by 21+
- 2.1%
- Tulane wins by 21+
- 22.0%
- Median score
- 17–27
- Model expectation
- 17.8–26.8
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Charlotte wins, bars on the left are Tulane wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Charlotte offense vs Tulane defenseOffense -7.3Defense +2.2Edge Tulane: its defense is 9.5 points better than Charlotte's offense.
Tulane offense vs Charlotte defenseOffense -5.9Defense -8.5Edge Tulane: its offense is 2.5 points better than Charlotte's defense.
| Stat | Charlotte | Tulane | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | -0.02 | 0.08 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.25 | 0.10 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 37.8% | 32.7% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 48.4% | 42.7% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 19.1 | 20.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 40.6 | 24.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
More matchups this week
Delaware51.5%Western Kentucky48.5%Tue 6:00 PM CT, at Western Kentucky28–27Missouri State56.3%Sam Houston43.7%Tue 7:00 PM CT, at Missouri State27–25Middle Tennessee64.0%Kennesaw State36.0%Wed 6:00 PM CT, at Middle Tennessee24–19Jacksonville State51.2%New Mexico State48.8%Wed 7:00 PM CT, at New Mexico State28–27North Texas77.5%Florida Atlantic22.5%Thu 6:30 PM CT, at North Texas46–34James Madison91.7%Troy8.3%Thu 6:30 PM CT, at James Madison37–16