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Cincinnati vs Iowa State prediction
Kickoff Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Iowa State
CIN 52% win48% ISU
28Projected22If ISU upsets
vs
27Projected34If ISU upsetsAway
Cincinnati Bearcats
Record 5–2 · #54 in ratings
Home
Iowa State Cyclones
Record 3–4 · #76 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (44)
Starts at 44, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | CIN | ISU | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 62 | 46 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Toss-up48%Iowa State wins at home
At a neutral site41% ▼
Iowa State: 1 win over a higher-rated team (West Virginia 45–42)
Cincinnati: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (West Virginia 42–45)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Iowa State won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- ISU 27, CIN 2065 games
- CIN 27, ISU 2458 games
- CIN 27, ISU 2053 games
- CIN 34, ISU 2752 games
- ISU 24, CIN 2052 games
- Power index
- 61 vs 45
- Projected
- CIN favored
- Differential
- 0.6 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Iowa State, luck set to normal. The real game is Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Iowa State.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Cincinnati by 0.6
- Projected total
- 55.1
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 43.2%
- Went to overtime
- 3.8%
- Cincinnati wins by 21+
- 9.3%
- Iowa State wins by 21+
- 8.1%
- Median score
- 27–27
- Model expectation
- 27.4–27
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Cincinnati wins, bars on the left are Iowa State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Cincinnati offense vs Iowa State defenseOffense +4.0Defense +0.8Edge Cincinnati: its offense is 3.2 points better than Iowa State's defense.
Iowa State offense vs Cincinnati defenseOffense -1.6Defense -1.3Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | Cincinnati | Iowa State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.29 | 0.09 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.17 | 0.14 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 46.5% | 38.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 44.4% | 42.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 35.4 | 25.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 26.4 | 24.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.