Loading the matchup…
Cincinnati vs Kansas State prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
CIN 54% win46% KSU
29Projected
vs
27ProjectedNeutral site
Cincinnati Bearcats
Record 5–2 · #54 in ratings
Neutral site
Kansas State Wildcats
Record 4–3 · #60 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 61 vs 57
- Projected
- CIN favored
- Differential
- 1.5 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Cincinnati by 1.5
- Projected total
- 56.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 42.9%
- Went to overtime
- 3.7%
- Cincinnati wins by 21+
- 10.8%
- Kansas State wins by 21+
- 7.4%
- Median score
- 28–27
- Model expectation
- 28.6–27
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Cincinnati wins, bars on the left are Kansas State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Kansas State 27, Cincinnati 2355 games
- Cincinnati 27, Kansas State 2052 games
- Cincinnati 27, Kansas State 2446 games
- Kansas State 34, Cincinnati 2746 games
- Kansas State 34, Cincinnati 3046 games
- Kansas State 27, Cincinnati 2045 games
Where the edges are
Cincinnati offense vs Kansas State defenseOffense +4.0Defense +1.2Edge Cincinnati: its offense is 2.8 points better than Kansas State's defense.
Kansas State offense vs Cincinnati defenseOffense -0.0Defense -1.3Edge Kansas State: its offense is 1.2 points better than Cincinnati's defense.
| Stat | Cincinnati | Kansas State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.29 | 0.16 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.17 | 0.12 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 46.5% | 45.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 44.4% | 36.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 35.4 | 32.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 26.4 | 21.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.