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Cincinnati vs Texas Tech prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
CIN 35% win65% TTU
27Projected
vs
33ProjectedNeutral site
Cincinnati Bearcats
Record 5–2 · #54 in ratings
Neutral site
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Record 6–1 · #20 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 61 vs 86
- Projected
- TTU favored
- Differential
- 5.9 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Texas Tech by 5.9
- Projected total
- 60.5
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 38.8%
- Went to overtime
- 3.1%
- Cincinnati wins by 21+
- 4.8%
- Texas Tech wins by 21+
- 17.4%
- Median score
- 27–33
- Model expectation
- 27–33
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Cincinnati wins, bars on the left are Texas Tech wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Texas Tech 34, Cincinnati 2746 games
- Texas Tech 37, Cincinnati 2745 games
- Texas Tech 30, Cincinnati 2744 games
- Texas Tech 27, Cincinnati 2043 games
- Texas Tech 34, Cincinnati 3043 games
- Cincinnati 30, Texas Tech 2742 games
Where the edges are
Cincinnati offense vs Texas Tech defenseOffense +4.0Defense +2.8Edge Cincinnati: its offense is 1.2 points better than Texas Tech's defense.
Texas Tech offense vs Cincinnati defenseOffense +5.9Defense -1.3Edge Texas Tech: its offense is 7.2 points better than Cincinnati's defense.
| Stat | Cincinnati | Texas Tech | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.29 | 0.15 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.17 | -0.04 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 46.5% | 46.8% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 44.4% | 37.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 35.4 | 35.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 26.4 | 20.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.