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Clemson vs Florida State prediction
Kickoff Sat 6:00 PM CT, at Florida State
CLEM 31% win69% FSU
21Projected
vs
28ProjectedAway
Clemson Tigers
Record 4–3 · #69 in ratings
Home
Florida State Seminoles
Record 3–4 · #42 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 50 vs 70
- Projected
- FSU favored
- Differential
- 7.1 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Florida State, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 6:00 PM CT, at Florida State.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Florida State by 7.1
- Projected total
- 48.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 39.7%
- Went to overtime
- 3.7%
- Clemson wins by 21+
- 3.2%
- Florida State wins by 21+
- 18.3%
- Median score
- 20–27
- Model expectation
- 20.2–27.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Clemson wins, bars on the left are Florida State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Florida State 27, Clemson 1787 games
- Florida State 24, Clemson 1778 games
- Florida State 20, Clemson 1777 games
- Clemson 24, Florida State 2063 games
- Florida State 24, Clemson 2062 games
- Florida State 27, Clemson 2457 games
Where the edges are
Clemson offense vs Florida State defenseOffense -4.2Defense -0.1Edge Florida State: its defense is 4.1 points better than Clemson's offense.
Florida State offense vs Clemson defenseOffense +4.6Defense +4.4Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | Clemson | Florida State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | -0.03 | 0.22 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.01 | 0.25 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 36.8% | 43.6% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 40.3% | 44.5% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 21.4 | 31.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 21.3 | 27.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.