Loading the matchup…
Clemson vs Miami prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
CLEM 12% win88% MIA
16Projected
vs
33ProjectedNeutral site
Clemson Tigers
Record 4–3 · #69 in ratings
Neutral site
Miami Hurricanes
Record 7–0 · #2 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 50 vs 99
- Projected
- MIA favored
- Differential
- 16.8 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Miami by 16.8
- Projected total
- 49.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 23.1%
- Went to overtime
- 1.9%
- Clemson wins by 21+
- 0.6%
- Miami wins by 21+
- 40.0%
- Median score
- 16–33
- Model expectation
- 16–33.1
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Clemson wins, bars on the left are Miami wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Miami 34, Clemson 1085 games
- Miami 27, Clemson 1772 games
- Miami 34, Clemson 1771 games
- Miami 30, Clemson 1771 games
- Miami 27, Clemson 1069 games
- Miami 34, Clemson 763 games
Where the edges are
Clemson offense vs Miami defenseOffense -4.2Defense +5.6Edge Miami: its defense is 9.8 points better than Clemson's offense.
Miami offense vs Clemson defenseOffense +11.8Defense +4.4Edge Miami: its offense is 7.4 points better than Clemson's defense.
| Stat | Clemson | Miami | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | -0.03 | 0.45 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.01 | 0.04 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 36.8% | 53.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 40.3% | 37.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 21.4 | 49.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 21.3 | 15.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.